但是，在近期全球股市普遍下挫的情况下，中国股市也出现了罕见的暴跌，中国股市泡沫是否已经提前破裂？如果这次只是虚惊一场，未来一段时间中国股市又将如何演绎，应如何研判股市所处的阶段？日本和台湾地区股市泡沫形成和破裂的过程给了我们一些启示。
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However, in the case of recent global stock markets generally down, China's stock market has a rare slump, ahead of China's stock market bubble has been burst? If this is just a false alarm, China's stock market for some time to come and how to interpret, the stage of the analysis how the stock market? Japan and Taiwan stock market bubble formation and rupture process gave us some inspiration.
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通过分析日本和台湾地区当年股市价格上涨及下跌的过程，我们认为股票价格上涨由三个因素决定，即基本面、流动性以及投资者信心。
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Through the analysis of Japan and Taiwan stock prices rise and fall in the same year, we believe that the stock price is determined by three factors, namely the fundamentals, liquidity and investor confidence.
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第一，基本面。众所周知，商品有价格是因为商品的价值，股票价格也是一样，由股票所代表的价值决定，从小的方面来讲就是企业盈利能力，从大的方面来看就是一个国家的宏观经济状况。
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First, the fundamentals. As we all know, because the value of the goods is the price of goods, the stock price is the same, determined by the value represented by the shares, from small way is profitability, from the large side is a country's macroeconomic situation.
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第二，流动性。流动性因素，即资金或钱的因素，没有资金，股票价格不可能上涨。由于各国汇率制度或中央银行制度的差异，决定流动性的因素是不同的。目前我国流动性过剩的主要原因是贸易顺差的持续扩大以及汇率升值预期引起的热钱大量流入，只要贸易顺差继续保持，汇率升值趋势不变，流动性过剩的状况就不会改变。因此，可以用贸易顺差和汇率作为考察流动性的指标。
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Secondly, liquidity. Liquidity factors, factors that funds or money, no money, cannot rise in stock prices. Due to differences in national exchange rate system or central banking system, factors which determine liquidity is different. China's main reason for the excess liquidity is at present continuing trade surplus expanded, and hot money flows caused by exchange rate appreciation, as long as the trade surplus continued to maintain, exchange rate appreciation trend unchanged, excess liquidity situation will not change. Therefore, trade and exchange rates can be used as an indicator of investigation of liquidity.
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第三，投资者信心。信心因素对股票价格的影响非常大，在基本面因素和流动性因素既定的情况下，投资者信心会加大股价的波动，有助推股价上涨和加速股价下跌的作用。
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Third, investors ' confidence. Confidence factors impact on stock prices is very large, in the case of fundamentals and liquidity factor established, investor confidence increased fluctuations in share prices, helped push share prices up and accelerate the role of price falls.
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从日台股市泡沫演变的历史经验中可以发现，上述三因素推动股市泡沫形成和破裂的过程可以分为四个阶段。第一阶段，基本面、流动性及信心共同推动股价上涨；第二阶段，基本面反转，流动性和信心支撑股价继续上涨；第三阶段，流动性反转，信心独立支撑股价；第四阶段，突发事件导致信心逆转，股市泡沫破裂。
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From the Japanese stock market bubble in the history of the evolution of can be found, the three factors for stocks of bubble formation and rupture process can be divided into four phases. The first phase, fundamentals, liquidity and confidence to promote shares rose; the second phase, fundamental reversal, liquidity and confidence to support stock prices continue to rise; the third stage, liquidity reversal, confidence in independent supporting share price; stage, sudden events cause confidence reverses, the stock market bubble burst.
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这四个阶段的划分不一定十分精确，但有助于我们从宏观经济的角度分析和把握资产泡沫所处的状态。对于日本，企业利润增速和GDP增长率代表基本面因素，见顶时间分别是1988年一季度和1988年。在日元升值过程中，日本央行没有进行过多的干预，货币政策保持了相对的独立性，国内货币供应量的大幅增长主要是由于央行将再贴现率维持在较低的水平，宽松的货币政策是日本上世纪80年代末流动性充裕的重要原因之一。另外，广场协议后，日元开始升值吸引了大量热钱流入，这也是股市资金充裕的一个重要原因。因此用汇率和宽松货币政策作为衡量股市流动性的指标，其见顶时间分别为1989年1月和1989年5月。1989年下半年，日本采取了严厉的紧缩性货币政策和土地政策，同时1990年海湾战争爆发，投资者对日本股市的信心被彻底摧毁，股市开始下跌。
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This Division of the four phases are not necessarily very accurate, but from the macroeconomic perspective and helps us grasp the State asset bubbles. For Japan, representatives of corporate profit growth and GDP growth fundamentals, peak time is quarter of 1988 and 1988 respectively. In the course of the yen, Japan's Central Bank without too much intervention, monetary policy to maintain a relative independence of the domestic money supply growth is mainly due to the Central Bank to maintain the discount rate at a lower level of loose monetary policy is Japan ample liquidity in the late 80 's one of the important reasons. In addition, after the Plaza accord, appreciation of the yen began to attract a lot of hot money inflows, it is also an important cause of stock market liquidity. Exchange rate as a measure of stock market liquidity and loose monetary policy indicators, its peak time in January 1989 and May 1989, respectively. The second half of 1989, Japan adopted a severe tightening of monetary policy and land policy, at the outbreak of the Gulf war in 1990, investor Japan stock market confidence was completely destroyed, the stock market began to fall.
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对于台湾地区，利润销售比和GDP增长率代表基本面因素，见顶时间分别是1987年4月和1987年。与日本不同的是，台湾当年对台币升值进行干预，其货币政策并不独立，汇率升值预期以及国际收支顺差导致外汇储备大量增长，岛内货币供应量大量增加。因此，如果用外汇储备增量和汇率作为台湾股市流动性的指标，其见顶时间分别为1987年10月和1989年5月。1989年下半年，台湾地区实行严厉的紧缩性货币政策、日本股市的下跌以及后来的海湾战争打破了人们的心理预期，台湾股市于1990年开始下跌。
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Taiwan sales representative fundamentals and GDP growth rate of profit, peak time was in April 1987 and 1987 respectively. And Japan is different, Taiwan year on NT dollar intervention, is not independent of its monetary policy, exchange rate appreciation is expected to result in foreign exchange reserves and balance of payments surplus of tremendous growth, a substantial increase in money supply on the island. Therefore, if the reserve accumulation and exchange rates as Taiwan index of stock market liquidity, its peak time in October 1987 and May 1989, respectively. The second half of 1989, Taiwan of severe tightening of monetary policy, Japan's stock market's fall and the subsequent Gulf war breaking people's psychological expectations, Taiwan's stock market started in 1990 fell.
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对于国内股市，也可以通过对基本面、流动性及投资者信心等因素的观察，对市场所处阶段从宏观上进行考察。基本面可以用企业利润增速和实际GDP增长率指标，流动性可以使用外汇储备增量和汇率指标。信心因素最难把握，也基本无法预测，但心理因素的存在使得股市容易脱离基本面因素发生超调，即在基本面因素和流动性因素消失之后，在信心因素的支撑下，股市还可以维持一段时间，为理性投资者提前退出股市提供时间。
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For the domestic stock market, or by observation of the fundamentals, liquidity and investor confidence and other factors, to visit the market on the stage from a macroscopic. Fundamentals can use corporate profit growth and real GDP growth rate indicators, liquidity can use reserve accumulation and exchange rate targets. Confidence factor most difficult to grasp, basically cannot be predicted, but presence of psychological factors of stock market easily overshoot occurred from the fundamentals, the fundamentals and liquidity factors disappeared, on the factor of confidence with the support of, the stock market can also be maintained for a period of time, provide time for rational investors early withdrawal of the stock market.
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（作者单位：中投证券研究所）
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(Author: CIC Securities Research Institute)
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